In the developing world, livestock production grew on the back of steady gains in real per capita income, population growth and urbanisation. In recent decades, while consumption of animal-sourced foods picked up in Latin America, South Asia and Southeast Asia, Africa lagged behind.
The good news contained in FAO's Investing in African Livestock: Business opportunities in 2030-2050 report is that the sector in Africa is catching up. The continent’s GDP growth rate is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2013. By 2030, GDP growth is projected to be four times the 2010 level of 4.6%. The population is predicted to 1.5 billion by 2030, up from the one billion of 2010, and increasingly urbanised.
These conditions are a fertile ground for a ‘livestock revolution’ in Africa, according to FAO.
Future meat and milk market
By 2050, the meat market in Africa is projected at 34.8 million tons while the milk market will be at 82.6 million tons. Market growth ( as measured by the additional volume of livestock products consumed from 2005/07 to 2050) is estimated at 24.3 million tons for meat and at 50.2 million tons for milk, putting the continent’s consumption at par with that of the developed world and Latin America.
Annual growth rates for meat and milk consumption are projected to be higher in Africa than in other regions, with the exception of meat in South Asia.
The livestock market in Africa has the potential to generate major business and investment opportunities. The FAO report notes that local producers will find it increasingly difficult to satisfy the growing demand for animal-sourced food, presenting lucrative import opportunities for companies.
Regional perspective
Development and opportunities in the sector will vary across regions.
- Southern, Northern and Eastern Africa account each for about one quarter of the beef market. The regions hold the greatest potential and business opportunities for beef producers. The market is however relatively uniform in terms of its importance in the various African regions.
- Central and Eastern Africa , followed by the Northern Africa, are projected to be the largest mutton markets in Africa and will contribute almost 70% of the additional demand for mutton, lamb, and goats by 2050, mostly a reflection of ethnic preferences.
- Almost half (46.7%) of pork consumption is currently concentrated in Southern Africa, followed by Western Africa (28.1%). Southern Africa is anticipated to further increase its share in the pork market in the coming decades.
- Poultry consumption is and will largely remain concentrated in Southern Africa and Northern Africa. Future increases in consumption will be high in the Western region, which should become a major target market for poultry producers.
- Northern and Western Africa jointly account for almost 65% of the eggs market in Africa. Major market opportunities for egg producers are expected in the Southern Africa.
Import opportunities
Although there are ample business opportunities for livestock producers in Africa across all products in the coming decades, FAO’s projections indicate that producers will be increasingly challenged to respond to the demand. Consequently, with the notable exception of Eastern Africa, the continent is set to be a net importer of livestock products, with the volume of imports steadily increasing for all major livestock products in the next decade.
Central Africa depends and will depend more on imported livestock products than all other regions, followed by Northern Africa.
Imports of milk are and will remain critical for Western, Southern and Northern Africa due to the rising demand for dairy products.
Beef imports will rise in Western, Northern and Central Africa.
Eastern Africa is the only region that will maintain a positive trade balance for some livestock products, including beef, mutton, pork and eggs.
Harvesting the opportunities
To exploit the opportunities in livestock production, increased investments and policy and institutional reforms that target the livestock sector are required. This calls for an understanding of ‘typologies’ of producers that are able to tap into market opportunities, and adoption of farm-to-fork business models that are sustainable and create employment.
The FAO report says decision makers need to pursue a dual-track approach to livestock development:
- Market-oriented or potentially market-oriented producers should be supported, as increasing livestock production and productivity of emerging farmers will generate spill over benefits to employment and consumption.
- Poor or relatively poor livestock keepers should be supported to make full use of their livestock assets, which is an effective way to sustain their livelihoods in the short to medium term while utilising resources with few alternative uses.
Formulating effective livestock sector policies and institutional changes require a flow of information on market conditions and on the constraints to market entry. These are rarely readily available and investments in data collection and in data collection systems should be given appropriate priority, as the basis for supportive policies and investment.
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